Research

The American Knowledge Economy
What is the “American knowledge economy” and which groups influenced the way it emerged and developed? Why does it rely so heavily on market-based tools, like intellectual property law, to promote innovation and what are the distributional consequences of that choice? Is it politically sustainable if it delivers economic benefits to such a small number of metropolitan areas? What does patent data tell us about the nature of innovation, the process of creative destruction, and the concentration of economic and political power in the 21st century.

The Political Economy of Antitrust Project
Why did the Democratic Party abandon its commitments to robust antitrust enforcement after the election of 1980?Who benefits, economically and politically, from lax antitrust enforcement and what is the relationship between these groups and the Democratic Party? Did changes in judicial and political institutions reinforce the regulatory shift towards maximizing consumer welfare? Do these legal frameworks marginalize important social and political values? Does the disjunction between policy and public demands threaten antitrust law’s political viability?

The Political Economy of
Climate Change
Does the American public understand the benefits of investing to prevent natural and public health disasters? What values do voters rely on when thinking about disaster prevention and climate change mitigation? How have the political forces that shaped the knowledge economy transition shaped the clean energy transition? Does energy-related “industrial policy” address the limits of the market-based approach to clean energy innovation? What actors and regions benefit from the clean energy transition and how are the political coalitions supporting it constructed?
Articles and papers are grouped by research focus. Expand for link to paper and abstract.
The American Knowledge Economy
The Politics of the American Knowledge Economy
Nicholas Short. 2022. Studies in American Political Development 36(1): 41-60.
The American knowledge economy (AKE) is not a foreordained transition in the organization of economic production, nor is it a form of political economy shaped predominately by the political demands of highly educated workers. It is a politically generated consensus for producing economic prosperity and economic advantage over other nations in which intellectual property (IP), and the businesses that produce it, play a leading role. The history of AKE development reveals as much. In the AKE’s formative period, from 1980 to 1994, IP producers and a faction of neoliberal Democrats (the “Atari Democrats”), not decisive middle-class voters, played a pivotal role in reconfiguring institutions of American political economy to hasten the AKE transition. Their vision of AKE development inherently complicated the Democratic Party’s attitude toward rising market power and continues to shape contemporary disputes within the party over antitrust enforcement and the validity of the AKE project itself.
peer-reviewed publication | article link
Financial Innovation in the 21st Century: Evidence from U.S. Patents
Josh Lerner, Amit Seru, Nick Short & Yuan Sun. Journal of Political Economy 132(5): 1391-1449.
We explore the evolution of financial innovation, using 24,000 U.S. finance patents applied for and granted over last two decades. Patented financial innovations are substantial and economically important, with annual grants expanding from a few dozen in the 1990s to over 2000 in the 2010s. The subject matter of financial patents has changed, consistent with the industry’s shift towards household investors and borrowers. The surge in financial patenting was driven by information technology and other non-financial firms. The location of innovation has shifted, with banks moving activity away from states with tight financial regulation. Concurrently, high-tech regions have attracted financial innovation by payments, IT, and other non-financial firms. Analyses of the returns to financial patents suggests that the social value of these innovations are higher than their private value. We present a simple model to explain these trends. The changing dynamics of financial innovation that began in the 1980s and 1990s may have lowered the private returns to innovation and increased the desirability of patent protection for financial innovations. Regulation of banks following the financial crisis of 2007 may have raised the costs of innovation, leading them to invest less in such activity.
peer-reviewed publication | article link
Political Contributions by American Inventors: Evidence from 30,000 Cases
Nicholas Short. Business & Politics 26(1): 64-101.
Political scientists know surprisingly little about the political behavior of inventors, or those who produce new technologies. I therefore merged US patent and campaign contribution (DIME) data to reveal the donation behavior of 30,603 American inventors from 1980 through 2014. Analysis of the data produces three major findings. First, the Democratic Party has made significant inroads among American inventors, but these gains increasingly come from only a few regions and flow to a relatively small number of candidates. Second, deeper geographic trends explain most of the change in aggregate donation patterns. Third, inventors do not strategically donate to candidates outside their own district and, since 2006, inventors increasingly contribute to relatively centrist employer PACs with weak ties to the Democratic Party. These findings suggest that the interaction between market-oriented policy and American electoral institutions may inhibit the formation of broad cross-regional coalitions to support the knowledge economy.
peer-reviewed publication | article link
Reagan’s Innovation Dividend: Reagan-Era Defense Spending and the American Knowledge Economy
Nicholas Short, Elliott Ash, and Mirko Draca. Working paper in progress.
Recent studies suggest that historical patterns of federal spending played a significant role in shaping knowledge economy development in the United States. We test this hypothesis in the context of the Reagan era defense buildup. We used detailed defense procurement data to construct a Bartik instrument of predicted procurement growth at the county-level and estimate the effect of procurement growth on innovation. We find that defense procurement growth arising from the Reagan buildup has significant and lasting effects on innovation. Defense procurement growth also has strong causal effects on regional economic development, but the long-run effects on innovation arise predominately from growth in the number of inventors. These findings support the view that federal spending plays an important role in forming and accelerating the development of the nation’s innovation hubs.
working paper | article in progress
The Political Economy of the Research Exemption in American Patent Law
Nicholas Short. 2016. Fordham Intellectual Property, Media, and Entertainment Law Journal 26(3): 573-623.
This Article approaches the research exemption, and related legal developments, as a case study in the political economy of patent law. Part I recounts the history of the research exemption, touching briefly on historical origins but emphasizing developments since the 1970s in legislative, executive, and judicial forums. It also examines changes during the same time frame in related areas of patent law, like the Bayh-Dole legislation and the attempted repeal of state immunity from patent infringement liability. These legal developments indirectly affected the research exemption, or implicated similar concerns about imbalance in the patent system and the use of patents to tax, control, or inhibit research activity. Part II analyzes this history to illustrate and expand upon two major themes in the political economy of patent law, namely the surprising persistence of faulty economic ideology in patent policymaking and the institutional bias exhibited by the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in shaping modern patent law. One major conclusion is that together these forces have created an excessively complex and ill-designed policy environment that is placing a significant strain on the national research system, a strain that executive agencies and the courts have tried to alleviate through ad hoc agreements and modifications of other patent doctrines, like the doctrine of subject matter eligibility.
law review article | article link
A Research Exemption for the 21st Century
Nicholas Short. 2016. Michigan Journal of Law Reform Caveat 50(1): 1-17.
On March 20, 2015, Robert Kastenmeier, who represented Wisconsin’s Second Congressional District from 1959 to 1991, passed away at his home in Arlington, Virginia. Though Kastenmeier may not have been well known outside of legislative circles and his home state of Wisconsin, he was in fact one of the most prolific policy makers—if not the most prolific policy maker—in the field of intellectual property law in the 20th century. He is impressively credited with authoring more than forty-eight laws dealing with intellectual property matters during his legislative tenure, including the Copyright Act of 1976, which remains the primary legal framework for copyright law in the United States.
One of the last bills that Kastenmeier introduced in the House of Representatives was a major piece of patent reform legislation dubbed the Patent Competitiveness and Technological Innovation Act of 1990 (PCTIA). Kastenmeier introduced the bill on September 20, 1990, but left office less than four months later on January 3, 1991, after losing an election to Scott Klug. The PCTIA contained five separate titles, and dealt with subjects as varied as the patentability of inventions made in outer space to the repeal of state sovereign immunity from infringement liability. One of those titles, Title IV, garnered little attention at the time, but addressed a subject of tremendous importance today: the need to codify and strengthen the long-standing common law research exemption in American patent law.
I have written elsewhere about the political economy of the research exemption in American patent law from 1970 to the present day, with an emphasis on analyzing the political coalitions that have historically argued in favor of or against such exemptions, and the economic arguments they often invoke. The purpose of this article, in contrast, is to carry forward the torch that Kastenmeier lit, and argue in favor of codifying a robust research exemption. To that end, section two briefly explains how the law pertaining to research exemptions has developed since 1970, with an eye towards understanding what these developments mean for policy makers. Section three summarizes the findings of relevant survey evidence and statistical studies. Section four critiques several scholarly proposals for a research exemption or proposals that attempt to accomplish similar ends through different means, like the proposal for creating a “fair use” exception in patent law, or for modifying the Bayh-Dole Act to give federal funding agencies more discretion when determining whether the results of publicly-funded research should be patented. Section five concludes by summarizing the basic argument in favor of the Robert Kastenmeier Memorial Act, a new bill to codify a robust research exemption in American patent law.
law review article | article link
The Political Economy of Antitrust Project
What is Ideological Capture and How Do We Measure It?: Using Antitrust Reform to Understand Expert-Public Cleavages
Nicholas Short, Sophie Hill, and Jacob Brown. Under review.
Scholarship on regulatory capture—when businesses lobby regulators to act contrary to the public interest—has thrived since the 1970s. Yet it ignores an important dimension of influence, what we call ideological capture. This occurs when experts design regulatory frameworks that marginalize important public values and produce favorable outcomes for business interests even in the absence of lobbying. We present a theoretical and empirical framework for understanding ideological capture, rooted in expert-public cleavages, and measure its presence in an important policy domain (antitrust review of business mergers) with an original survey of the public and of antitrust lawyers. Our results suggest that the main framework for evaluating anti-competitive conduct, the consumer welfare standard, marginalizes important public concerns, but is deeply popular among antitrust lawyers. With prior work showing the standard arose not from conventional processes, but from judicial and bureaucratic activism, we conclude that antitrust policy evidences ideological capture.
working paper | article link
Antitrust Reform in Political Perspective: A Constructive Critique for the Neo-Brandeisians
Nicholas Short. Under review.
Today, it is common for antitrust policy reformers to contend that today’s lax enforcement scheme is the byproduct of an elite ideological movement, started in the 1970s and 1980s and led by lawyers and economists at the University of Chicago. I argue that it arose instead from political activism within both political parties, drawing on broadly held values and concerns, and was sustained over time by monumental shifts in American political institutions, party coalitions, and partisan strategies for producing economic growth. I specify a new framework for analyzing the distributional conflict of antitrust politics and propose reforms that will better align policy with public values and expectations, with the aim of making antitrust policy more democratic and less technocratic.
working paper | article link
Antitrust Deregulation and the Politics of the American Knowledge Economy
Nicholas Short. Revisions in progress.
Theory suggests antitrust policy is a low salience issue that responds to ideological changes among political elites and not to changes in preferences among the electorate. I argue that the Democratic Party’s reluctance to increase antitrust enforcement intensity after 1992 had an electoral connection in that, as the Party turned towards the knowledge economy, it increasingly aligned its policy positions with the views of affluent service professionals who did not favor more antitrust intervention. I find some evidence to support this hypothesis in three exploratory analyses using observational data. First, I show that, in 1981, the federal government began challenging large mergers and acquisitions at much lower rates and that later Democratic presi- dents accommodated that policy change. Second, using a panel study of top income shares at the state level, I show that antitrust deregulation allowed service professionals in several consis- tently Democratic states to generate large economic returns. Third, using multilevel regression and post-stratification on survey data, I find that younger and more affluent individuals and those in states that are the most exposed to the service economy support regulation of mergers and acquisitions at significantly lower levels, levels normally observed in states that support Republican presidential candidates by large margins.
working paper | article link
The Political Economy of Climate Change
The Politics of Disaster Prevention
Martin Gilens, Tali Mendelberg, and Nicholas Short. Conditional acceptance, Journal of Politics.
Despite the importance of effective disaster policy, governments typically fail to produce it. The main explanation offered by political scientists is that voters strongly support post-disaster relief but not policies that seek to prevent or prepare for disaster. This study challenges that view. We develop novel measures of preferences for disaster prevention and post-disaster relief. We find strong support for prevention policies and candidates who pursue them, even among the subgroups that are the most opposed. Support for prevention has the hallmarks of “real” attitudes: consistency across wordings and response formats, including open ended probes; steadfastness in the face of arguments; and willingness to make trade-offs against disaster relief, increased taxes, and reduced spending on other programs. Neither cognitive biases for the here and now nor partisan polarization prevent robust majority support for disaster prevention. We validate these survey findings with election results, which suggest voters act on these preferences.
peer-reviewed publication | article link
Racial Attitudes and Views of Disaster
Martin Gilens, Tali Mendelberg, and Nicholas Short. Under review.
As disasters become more frequent and costly, understanding attitudes toward government disaster policy becomes critically important. Scholars have explored the racialized nature of specific disasters such as Hurricane Katrina. But studies of general disaster policy preferences have not attended much to race, focusing instead on dimensions like partisanship and perceived deservingness. We use two original national surveys to assess the role of racial attitudes and ethnoracial identification on support for disaster spending. We find that racial attitudes are among the most powerful predictors of disaster spending preferences. They also strongly condition support for racially-targeted reasons justifying disaster spending. We also find that support for disaster spending is highest among Black Americans and lowest among Whites. Racial attitudes account for much of this racial gap, and strongly predict preferences even with controls for political attitudes, experience with disaster, and demographics. Our findings hold across question wordings and time. Racial attitudes are important in understanding general preferences about disaster policy, beyond responses to the specific racialized disasters on which scholars of race and disaster have focused.
working paper | article in progress